Li Xiaoxia, Special Researcher, Xinjiang Development Research Center

Recently, the population problem in Xinjiang has attracted much attention. In particular, the German anti-China scholar Zheng Guoen (English name Adrian B. Citing data from unknown sources, Zengz, cobbled together a study entitled Sterilization, Intrauterine Birth Control and Mandatory Family Planning: The Communist Party's Campaign to Suppress the Birth Rate of Uighurs in Xinjiang, claiming that “the natural population growth in Xinjiang has declined sharply” and denigrating the so-called “forced sterilization” problem in Xinjiang. In view of the report's erroneous viewpoint and absurd logic, this paper combs through the situation of population change in Xinjiang, analyzes the reasons for the rapid population growth in southern Xinjiang, and expounds the rationality of the trend of population change in Xinjiang.

At the time of the country's first census in 1953, the total population of Xinjiang was 4.8736 million, and at the time of the sixth national census in 2010, the total population of Xinjiang was 21.8158 million, an increase of nearly 3.3 times in 57 years. In recent years, the total population of Xinjiang has continued to grow steadily, and statistics show that between 2010 and 2018, the ethnic minority population and the Uyghur population in Xinjiang have grown steadily, and the Han population in Xinjiang has increased slightly. In terms of population, the resident population of Xinjiang rose from 21.8158 million to 24.8676 million between 2010 and 2018, an increase of 3.0518 million, or 13.99 percent. Among them: the ethnic minority population rose from 12.9859 million to 15.8608 million, an increase of 2.8749 million, an increase of 22.14 percent The number rose to 12.7184 million, an increase of 2.5469 million, or 25.04 per cent, and the Han population rose from 8.8299 million to 9.068 million, an increase of 176.9 million, an increase of 2.0 per cent. The growth rate of the Uighur population is not only higher than that of the whole territory, but also higher than that of other ethnic minorities, and significantly higher than that of the Han population. In terms of growth region, the population of the four southern states increased from 895.1 million to 10.355 million between 2010 and 2018, an increase of 1.404 million, an increase of 13.55 percent, the fastest in the whole territory.

Since the founding of New China, the total population of Xinjiang, the ethnic minority population of Xinjiang, especially the Uighur population, have maintained rapid growth, especially in the southern Xinjiang region, the growth of the Uighur population is particularly obvious, the reasons can be summarized in the following aspects.

The influence of the long-standing policy of difference between the people and the Chinese. The Chinese government advocates family planning among ethnic groups through legal forms, and at the same time, from the perspective of the coordinated and sustainable development of ethnic minorities, it has implemented a relatively lenient policy on ethnic minorities in terms of the number of children to be born, which is different from that of the Han. In 1975, Xinjiang implemented a family planning policy in cities such as Urumqi, where the Han population is concentrated. In 1981, the Interim Provisions on Certain Issues of Family Planning were issued, and the family planning policy was fully implemented among the Han population in Xinjiang. In 1992, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Family Planning Measures were issued, and the family planning policy of ethnic minorities was introduced in the entire population of Xinjiang, i.e., the han people in urban areas advocated that a couple should have one child and two children in rural areas; In 2017, with the improvement of the level of economic and social development and the convergence of the will of the people of all ethnic groups to have children, Xinjiang revised the Regulations on Population and Family Planning of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which stipulates that all ethnic groups should implement a unified family planning policy, that is, a couple in a town can have two children and a couple in rural areas can have three children. According to the 1988 National Sample Survey of Birth Control (2 per cent sample survey), Uighur women on average expected to have 6.13 children for life from 1970 to 1974, 5.4 children from 1985 to 1987, and 5.2 and 2.5 children for Han Chinese women, respectively. In 1981, the highest total fertility rates of China's ethnic population were Tibetans (5.84) and Uighurs (5.59); It can be seen that the fertility rate of Uighurs has always been at a high level in the country.

Increased levels of health care have significantly reduced mortality. In the early days of the founding of New China, the death rate in Xinjiang was as high as 20 per thousand. With the improvement of medical conditions, the mortality rate fell below 10 per 1,000 live births in the mid-1960s and continued to decline thereafter, with natural growth rates largely in sync with changes in birth rates (see Figure 1). In a Uighur village in Ingisha County, Kashgar region, between 1949 and 1983, 232 people died in the village, with an average age of 18.76 years, of which 127, or 54.74 percent, were infants under one year of age. In 2016, the author surveyed the village, where eight people died that year, with an average age of 73.9 years. Between 2014 and 2015, 282 babies were born in the village, and only one died. The physical fitness of the people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang has improved greatly, especially the level of health care for women and children, with the maternal mortality rate dropping from 43.41 per 100,000 in 2010 to 26.65 per 100,000 in 2018, the infant mortality rate from 26.58 to 14.02 per 1,000, and the average life expectancy reaching 74.82 years (data 2015).

The implementation of the family planning policy has not been in place, resulting in a large number of unplanned population. Influenced by various factors, the implementation of family planning policies in Kashgar, Hetian and other southern Xinjiang regions has long been difficult to promote and implement, resulting in the rapid population growth of the region. Some people because the concept and cognition of fertility has not changed, there is resistance to family planning policy, hindering the implementation of family planning policy; Heavy reward light punishment, heavy service light management, family planning cadres overall strength is relatively weak, such as Kashgar District Shaqi County, family planning cadres per capita service of 15,000 people, the furthest service radius of 130 kilometres, seriously affecting the implementation of family planning policy. In 2015, a county in Kashgar region carried out special statistics on family planning work, between 1989 and 2014, the county was born a total of 359,000 people, of which 10.5% were unplanned births.

　　 The birth rate and natural growth rate of Xinjiang’s population dropped from 15.88‰ and 11.40‰ in 2017 to 10.69‰ and 6.13‰ in 2018, respectively. The number of newborns in 2018 decreased by about 120,000 compared with 2017. The main reasons are as follows.

　　 The family planning policy is strictly implemented. The “Regulations on Population and Family Planning of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region” revised in 2017 stipulated that all ethnic groups implement a unified family planning policy (a couple in an urban area can have 2 children, and a couple in a rural area can have 3 children), and it is against violations of the regulations. Those who have more children shall be punished accordingly. At the same time, the people's government at or above the county level in Xinjiang has set up special funds for population and family planning incentives to provide incentives and social security to citizens who practice family planning. For example, ethnic minority couples in Xinjiang's rural areas voluntarily give birth to only two children (including adoption) for life, and can apply for the “Parents of Family Planning Glory Certificate.” The families of farmers and herdsmen who receive the honor certificate shall be given a one-time reward of not less than 3,000 yuan by the local people's government. In recent years, Xinjiang has continued to improve family planning technical services, vigorously popularize scientific knowledge on contraception, birth control, and reproductive health, and provide family planning and reproductive health services to improve citizens’ reproductive health. For example, so far, there are 9788 distribution outlets for free family planning medicines in Xinjiang to maximize convenience for the masses to receive medicines; 17 kinds of family planning medicines are distributed for free every year, mobile apps are opened, and mobile smart means are used to facilitate the masses to find places Detailed information on the distribution points of contraceptives designated at the county, township and county levels effectively met the diverse contraceptive and basic health needs of the majority of people of childbearing age. The masses independently choose safe, effective and appropriate contraceptive measures, and women of childbearing age voluntarily accept tubal ligation and intrauterine device placement. For example, Hotan and other places follow the principle of combining voluntary and technical guidance of the masses, encouraging the masses to choose internationally recognized tubal ligation and intrauterine device placement with low side effects, high safety and effectiveness, and the cost of this project is borne by the government.

The concept of marriage and child-rearing has changed. In recent years, through extensive and in-depth publicity, young people take the initiative to give up the closed, backward concept of choosing a partner and the concept of marriage and child-bearing. The concept of early marriage and early childbearing has been gradually abandoned, the age of first marriage has been postponed, time and energy have been more focused on personal development, and more and more ethnic minority youth choices. For example, in 2015, a total of 102 couples were newly married in a township in Ingisha County, and none of them were married early, in contrast, 47 of them were late marriages, an increase of 23.9 per cent over the same period last year. At the same time, the concept of less eugenics is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, especially for rural women of ethnic minorities, after leaving the house, not only increased income, but also broke the traditional “marriage-birth-farming” cycle, the family status greatly improved, the right to speak of reproductive choice greatly increased, eugenics and eugenics concept significantly strengthened. With the development of society and the progress of people's thoughts, the pursuit of free love, happy marriage has become common, marriage and family more and more stable, divorce remarriage rate shows a steady and declining trend. For example, according to official statistics, in 2015, 2017 and 2018, the number of registered divorces in Xinjiang was 74,979, 51,223,47,919, respectively, an average annual decline of 14%, and the number of remarriages was 195008, 150628 and 115831, respectively, an average annual decline of 16%.

Religious extremism is effectively contained. In recent years, in response to the serious and complex fight against terrorism, de-radicalization and the urgent demands of the masses of all ethnic groups to combat violent terrorist crimes and ensure the safety of life and property, Xinjiang adheres to the rule of both specimens and the rule of law, carries out de-radicalization work in accordance with the law, so that many people gradually break free from the ideological cage of religious extremism, and the concept of modern civilized life can be deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The people infected with extreme ideas realized the transformation from “Nianika” religious ceremony marriage to free love, registration of marriage according to law, from the “Tarak” religious ceremony divorce to the desire to be true, agreement divorce, from “birth control contraception is a pagan” to “less eugenics, happy life” change, improve the awareness of the masses of all ethnic groups in accordance with the law marriage and child-bearing. In the process of de-radicalization, some women's thoughts have also been liberated, the concept of equality between men and women and the scientific awareness of healthy reproduction have been greatly improved, to avoid the suffering of being held hostage by extremism as a means of reproduction, and to become physical and mental health, self-confidence and independence, patriotic love of the new era of women.

The development trend of the world population shows that the higher the level of economic and social development, the stronger the concept of self-worth realization and eugenics, the lower the fertility rate and the natural growth rate of the population. The classical theory of population transformation holds that with the development of human society, the population will change from “high mortality rate, high birth rate and low growth rate” to “low mortality rate, low birth rate and low growth rate”. Since the mid-1960s, fertility levels have continued to decline in some European countries, with the combined fertility rate falling to 1.6 or less between 1980 and 1985. At the end of the 20th century Europe as a whole entered an era of ultra-low fertility. China's combined fertility rate continued to decline after falling to a low level in the early 1990s, from 1.5-1.6 in 2015.

Compared with the whole country, the population transformation in Xinjiang has the characteristics of relative lag and structural difference. With the continuous development of economy and society, the living conditions of people of all ethnic groups in Xinjiang have undergone fundamental changes in their living conditions, such as travel, residence, education, medical treatment and employment, which have promoted the steady improvement of the quality of the population. According to the four-stage theory of population transformation, Xinjiang's population has entered the fourth stage, that is, low mortality rate, low birth rate and low growth rate. The birth rate and natural growth rate of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang will decrease significantly in 2018, especially the Uighur population and natural growth rate. This aspect is the appearance of the strict implementation effect of family planning policy, on the other hand, it is also the performance of the population transformation process, which has been relatively lagging behind by ethnic minorities in recent years.

With the further promotion of poverty alleviation, the production and living conditions in poor areas of southern Xinjiang continue to improve, the process of urbanization has accelerated significantly, the urban population has continued to increase, the education level and cultural quality of the masses of all ethnic groups have been greatly improved, the concept of fertility has changed, late marriage and late childbearing, less eugenics will become the voluntary choice of more and more people, will also become the culture of the southern Xinjiang society. At the same time, the southern Xinjiang region to promote secularization, modernization of social lifestyle has achieved remarkable results, backward conception of fertility significantly reduced, the space for individuals to choose their own will be more and more, including the control of reproductive behavior of the autonomy has been increasing. It can be said that the transformation of the Uighur population is gradually being driven by the external forces of policy guidance and restriction to voluntary choice and independent decision-making. This transformation is not only a simple problem of population increase or decrease, but also involves the overall improvement of human quality, which is the result of the voluntary choice of ethnic minorities.